There are two words nobody in the live business wants to hear:
Force majeure.
It’s the clause buried in contracts for the thing nobody expects to happen. An extraordinary event outside anyone’s control that makes it impossible to put on the show.
Storms. Floods. Fires. War. Pandemics. Commonly referred to as “Acts of God.”
And this weekend, force majeure came for live music.
Unfortunately, Global Citizen canceled its festival in Central Park for the first time in its 14-year history. CBGB Festival was called off in Brooklyn. Sadly, All Things Go canceled all three days of its New York festival. Other concerts and festivals across the Northeast were postponed or canceled as a nor’easter threatened heavy rain, flooding, and dangerous winds.
For many of these events, the storm hadn’t even arrived yet.
But that’s how the live business works. A festival is basically a temporary city made of stages, LED walls, speakers, tents, barricades, generators, sponsor activations, and thousands of people. High winds alone can shut the whole thing down.
By the time that decision is made, millions of dollars are already in motion.
Artists. Crews. Staging. Security. Travel. Marketing. Vendors. Sponsors. Merchandise. Ticket refunds.
Some of it is insured. Some may be recoverable. Some of it is simply gone.
Force majeure literally means “superior force.” The details of that little clause can ultimately determine who gets paid and who eats the loss.
The timing is ironic. This was Climate Week in NYC, with more than 100,000 people coming to New York for 1,000+ events discussing sustainability, climate risk, and resilience.
Meanwhile, Mother Nature canceled the concert.
I feel for all of the artists that had to cancel plans and, of course, my friends and colleagues who put so much work into these productions. It was a sad afternoon on Friday at the AEG offices in NY, which I’ve been working out of these days. Although by 5:00 p.m., the music was playing louder than usual and the teams were communing in the kitchen to accept the fate of the weekend. It’s beautiful how music and community can soothe the soul after a very tough day.
The live business spends enormous amounts of time thinking about talent, ticket sales, production, sponsors, marketing, and fan experience. Weather is becoming a bigger and bigger part of that equation.
The US Open put a retractable roof on Arthur Ashe Stadium after dealing with so many years of unpredictable Septembers. The NFL plays through plenty of bad weather, rain, snow, or shine. Outdoor music festivals don’t have many options. Look at Goldenvoice’s inaugural Ocean Way slated for the Santa Monica Pier this weekend. Canceled because a hurricane that hit around Labor Day made the beachfront property unsafe.
A few weekends like this can take out a company and do serious damage to the bottom line of the entire live ecosystem.
On a more macro level, the live business has learned how to price tickets, talent, security, production, and demand. As extreme weather becomes a bigger and more unpredictable part of the equation, it will have to get much better at pricing the weather.
What if the weather becomes part of the event budget?
Not “Will it rain?”
What is the financial cost of the probability that it rains?
Interestingly enough, prediction markets are beginning to turn weather itself into something businesses can trade and potentially hedge. Kalshi’s weather markets are pacing toward $1.1 billion in annual volume, up 500% year over year. Maybe the next evolution of force majeure isn’t just better insurance. It’s putting a price on the weather before the storm ever arrives.
So this week we’re looking at what happens when the show can’t go on, what insurance actually covers, how much a canceled festival really costs, and how the live business protects itself from weather risk.
Sometimes the biggest force in the entertainment business is force majeure.
Musically yours,
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